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If you downloaded music for free from YouTube, what are the chances of getting caught? 3 Answers. Stuart Grant, 25 years in the radio and ... Which is the number we'll use. Assuming you shared music online for all five years of the RIAA's legal hunt, among an (eventual) crowd of 45.6 million, that's a one in 1,629 chance of getting caught during that time period. Well, the odds are low, but the risk does exist. The RIAA has taken ... you won't be caught.